Skip to main content

tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  October 2, 2009 12:00pm-2:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
all right you're looking at a live picture of madrid. they are still in the running for the 2016 olympics as they are voting right now in copenhagen. you know whose out of the race, shocking in elimination for chicago. that's where our own phil is right now. i don't know if you heard ross westgate say if you looked at local polling, majority of people in chicago did not want to have the olympics. live there. what's your impression what sentiment was really like? >> i think that's a fairly accurate portrayal of the sentiment. a lot of people look at the olympic games and said hey, if you can do it for the price tag that's been put on this great. but we all know the long track record of olympic host cities
12:01 pm
going way over budget and that's the concern for a lot of people, especially in an economy like we have right now. a lot of people sat there and said can i really count on us only spending x billion dollars which was $4.5 billion or look at cost overruns which almost every other city has had. >> rio de janeiro is so strongly in the running here. that's in a country that's seen tremendous growth with this economy over the last couple of years. interesting. but there's a lot of crime issue, security issues to consider there. anyway, we're out of time guys. that will do it for today. i'm trish regan. >> him leslie is a francis. >> i'm larry kudlow. "power lunch" is coming up next. we're doing the samba today. >> we might be. >> we'll see. welcome to "power lunch."
12:02 pm
it's a friday. i'm bill griffeth. jobs report this morning initially spooked investors. that loss of more than 260,000 jobs in september pushed the unemployment rate to 9.8%. but the major averages have been fighting back at this hour. coca-cola, ibm, travellers among the leaders in the dow jones industrials. >> i'm sue herera. $500 billion of investment advice for you with jpmorgan fund david kelly joining us on the best places to put your money right now. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. david letterman's late night confession is the talk of the nation. the cbs employee accused of blackmail has been retired. what does it mean? >> dennis kneale, i celebrate heroes of capitalism. today we talk about heroes of do gooders. here's what sells on the menu. >> i'm in chicago where we have
12:03 pm
an olympic shocker. chicago eliminated in the first-round of the 2016 olympic voting moments ago. rio de janeiro is probably the favorite. they are going to go up against madrid. we'll discuss more this was. how did this happen? we'll discuss it more on power lunch. >> we have the line on madrid. what's interesting, gang, the number of heads of state who got involved, the prime minister of japan was there. the president of brazil of there. >> king carlos. >> the former president of the ioc who is 89 years old made a personal plea to the international olympic committee on behalf of madrid saying he's only got so much time left on this earth, and what's interesting obviously that carried more weight than our own president showing up as chicago goes out in the first round. remains to be seen in the next hour if it goes to madrid
12:04 pm
or rio. >> stinging for us to go out in the first-round despite a president who is so popular around the world. >> we should remind everybody here, we're making the assumption this process is one based on merit. wonderful documentary by the bbc showing it's riddled with corruption. this is not about merits of chicago versus another city. has there been any changes in the way they run the ioc. >> rio de janeiro, i bet rio de janeiro wins. >> host the winter olympics in rio, i'll never know. >> you were first with the bobsled jokes. >> i'm kidding. >> let's get to the market action. bob pisani kicks it off. >> nonforeign payrolls a big disappointment. a modest market reaction. the dollar, they watch the dollar, because as the dollar moves down, of course the poor macro economic outlook and hit
12:05 pm
its bottom stocks started rallying about 10:30 we saw stocks start a nice move to the upside. take a look, your pepsis and cokes all did fairly well. pepsi is moving ahead with the acquisition to buy their bottlers. more defensive names holding up pretty well. regional banks and financials were weak at the open. but they quickly moved up, again, as the dollar moved up and there you see a positive for the day, a number of the big banks positive. material stocks when the dollar drops, normally material stocks, commodities move to the upside. same situation with alcoa. it too moved. now basically flat on trade. trader talk at and we're almost positive on the nasdaq. >> we were earlier. bean bit of a roller coaster ride for the nasdaq. it's holding its own especially considering the huge 3% hit that it took yesterday.
12:06 pm
where would this market be if not for a few big analyst upgrades. upgrade of apple out of ubs with a new price target of $270 or $265 on that stock. upgrade of intel out of 0 pen h -- oppenheimer. >> we got to go to michelle caruso-cabrera who is speaking with president obama's top economic advisor. they are at the conference in washington. first draft of history, name of the conference. let's go to maria. >> as the president has been saying, we're facing critical economic problems. they were not made in a week or a month or a year. and they are going to take substantial time to work through. and employment and unemployment, of course, economic experience suggests is a lagging indicator. but i think it's important not
12:07 pm
to lose sight of the fact that we're in a very different place than we were nine months ago. the rate of job loss decline substantially. people are now expecting that the third quarter showed positive gdp growth. the discussions of depression that were pervasive nine months ago aren't where the economic discussion is. but, we can't rest until the economy is gaining. jobs, gaining jobs at the kind of substantial rate that will be necessary to bring unemployment back to satisfactory levels. that's why investment in infrastructure, that's why the support to enable state and local governments to maintain and strengthen their educational systems, that's why the resources devoted to health information technology, that's why the measures contained in the president's program are so
12:08 pm
important. that's why we're continuing to work to strengthen the financial system with a foreclosure mitigation program that's now reaching close to 40,000 house holds each week. there's a lot that needs to be done, and we've got to keep pursuing the strategy, because this number remind us of what we have always known, that it is a long road. >> when would you expect job creation again? >> well, every month there's job creation. and there is job destruction, of course, on net. it has been job loss. but experience suggests that job creation and overall employment growth follows growth and output, and by some months and we're going to see the first
12:09 pm
likely to see the first evidence of gdp growth in the third quarter when those statistics are reported for the quarter that just ended at the end of the month. so i think we're looking at a period of several months before you will see employment creation. >> a lot of people talking about the recovery being muted and some saying look even though we're out of the recession it's not going to feel all that different. is it fair we could bump along the bottom for a little while? >> i think an economy where production is increasing is different from an economy where production is decreasing. i certainly think it already feels very different than it did in the first quarter the year when it was like a ball rolling off a table. when you had a sense that output was in free fall, and when you had panic in many financial markets. i think it already feels very different from that. i think it's going to be a while
12:10 pm
before it feels like we would like it to. it will be a while before you have the kind of normalization that we would like to see. going have economic insecurity for quite some time to come. that's why we're going to be working in all the key sectors of the economy, whether it's manufacturing, whether it's housing, whether it's reforming health care so that labor costs can come down and firms can be in a position to hire more people. we've got an enormous amount to do. >> i want to ask you about firms hiring more perm and what kind of incentives might enable that. but there is worry out there on the part of some people that we could go into a double dip recession. how much of a risk is a double dip recession? >> nobody can ever forecast what's going happen. as we've seen with the employment statistics, while i think it's very clear, anyone who looks at the statistics on employment declines, since
12:11 pm
january has to see a clear downward trend. there have been fluctuations from month to month where it's moved in both directions. that could be true with respect to out put. but, certainly most observers do not expect or see any reason for the kind of free fall precipitous decline that we saw in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. some measures we saw continuing into the early summer. i think you never can be certain in economics. but it's reasonable to think that we're past that. but, we've got a lot of work to do in the public sector, the private sector has a lot of work to do to support this expansion being as strong as it possibly can be. >> it's reasonable to think we won't have a double dip recession then? >> i would expect that -- you're
12:12 pm
trying to get me. you're trying to get me into your categories and i'm going to keep using my somewhat more rounded and elongated categories to talk about thing. i think it's pretty clear that the worst of the economic situation in this cycle and frankly, i hope for the next several cycles is past and that we're going to see a basic pattern of recovery and the challenge is going to be to make that recovery be as strong and robust as we can. but, you know, in a process of convalescence, it's never a completely smooth, smooth path. there's going to be fluctuations. >> how much would you say the stimulus package has impacted
12:13 pm
things and when would you expect the rest of the stimulus to take impact? >> i think we would be in a very different place if the president had not put in place the recovery act. you would see cops and firemen and teachers who are doing vital work be out on the street, looking for work in very large numbers without that stimulus package. without that stimulus package, the consumer has not been where we would like the consumer to be. but you would be seeing far more distress in the consumer sector. without the efforts that led to private capital raising by financial institutions, you would be seeing a far more
12:14 pm
problematic credit crunch. look, we had a vicious cycle, the most vicious cycle certainly that's happened during my career as an economist, fully under way last january, where a falling economy was damaging the financial system and a damaged financial system was damaging credit which was making it impossible for the economy to recover and two were feeding on each other and the economy was imploding. that's not happening today and the reason it's not happening today is the confidence that came from the recovery program that was put in place. there are different measures of stimulus spending, of how much is gone. you can look at obligations, you
12:15 pm
can look at outlays. if somebody tells me, when i'm back sometime ago, somebody tells me i was allowed to -- >> we're going northern this situation. we'll be back in a couple of minutes. we'll be back in a couple of minutes and then talk about mr. summer as comments. esesesesesess
12:16 pm
12:17 pm
12:18 pm
welcome back to "power lunch." we're monitoring the conversation that's taking place with larry summers. mr. summers comments, and maria's question about the possibility of a double dip. let's go steve leaseman and the senior economist at rjq economics. so, steve, maria pressed him a little bit on that. she didn't think he was answering her questions. but it seemed to be that he's starting to rule out the possibility of a double dip snoop what he's doing is what they always do is rely on the consensus. he's right, the consensus is not at a double dip right now. when i listen to him, sue, i got the feeling he was not out of step with how the markets are taking this jobs number today which is this is bad. everybody is disappointed but it's not the end of the recovery, not the end of the world. there is a finite amount of time
12:19 pm
that anybody will take any salvo at all to remind us we're not calling off the cliff. >> not to be disingenuous, he said no one can ever forecast what's going happen. this from the president's chief economic forecaster. >> except for conrad. >> what is going to happen, conrad? i mean there's obvious disappointment with this jobs number today. does it signal a weakening of the kind of growth we've been seeing through the summer time? >> well, i don't think so. i think we've certainly had some more disappointing numbers relative to expectations for september so far, but we need to remember recoveries are never straight line events. we'll have a bit of pull back in some of the indicators. if you look at where jobs are right now, we're still losing jobs at a operate healthy clip
12:20 pm
but at a much lower clip than earlier this year. big decline in payrolls. so, labor market is clearly the weakest part of the economy. we're seeing growth, those in manufacturing activity. consumer confidence data was a bit of a disappointment but well above the levels. so we're still on the recovery path. >> by inference you could say the stimulus package has not helped unemployment all that much. are there other levers we should be pulling to help unemployment? what if they had three year moratorium on capital gains? >> it's highly unlikely we'll get that. what the government has done is a deeper decline in activity. it's not going to do much to spur new growth. if we look back to the 2003 tax cuts that we had in the middle the year, that's when the recovery started to pick up.
12:21 pm
>> i think you're on to something here. we can sit here and watch payroll growth month to month and we'll see some interesting stuff and i assume it will bounce back. but there are a couple of things that are worrisome. the participation rate is back down to 1985 levels. that's the percent of the population that's now attaching itself to the workforce. men are dropping out. workforce in numbers we've never seen before. the duration of unemployment at 26 weeks. the fed chairman yesterday correctly points to this idea. when you're out of the workforce for 26 weeks, you're unemployed, you begin to be detached, you begin to lose skills. to the extent that your question focus on the long term implications, not the month to month payroll thing that's where policy needs to be directed. >> you agree? >> i absolutely agree. we obviously have a situation, steve hit on an important point. we're focused on the unemployment rate. if we look at broader measures of unemployment, that's 17%.
12:22 pm
the labor market -- >> let's use that measure. that's the diskounched people. people working part time. 17%. people think it's a better measure of slack in the labor force. >> i think we're probably understating things a little bit even with that elevated unemployment rate. it would be encouraging to see some things in place to, i think, to support a stronger recovery in the labor market and you've hit on one point there with taxes. i don't think we'll see it. >> look what happened to home sales when they had that first time buyer credit. i wish we had a few more for at that little while. thank so much for being with us. >> up next, stocks. stocks are down a little bit again on the back of that bad jobs report. how should investors play the new quarter? "power lunch" task force got you waiting in the wing. >> industrials now down 10 points, 9498. we were talking about 10,000 now
12:23 pm
we're talking about 9,500. >> we're still talking 10,000. just a little later. and i buy the hops for the michelob brewing company. there are hundreds of growers here in the hallertau region of germany, so it's important to know all those growers. we go with them out to the fields and they tell us, you know, this spot has the best quality hops. they tell me, you know, willy, those hops are for you. the dunkel weisse, pale ale, amberbock are great beers, but it takes great hops to make them. so we get the first pick and everybody else is getting the rest.
12:24 pm
[ male announcer ] there's a family behind the michelob family of beers. michelob. crafting a better beer. 100 years of engineering excellence is here for the taking. it's gmc truck month. shop the gmc yukon that offers 20 highway mpg, and over 108 cubic feet of maximum cargo space. step up to the best. it's gmc truck month. get 0% apr for 72 months on 2009 gmc yukon. or get $6,000 total cash back on select 09 yukon vehicles in stock. see your gmc dealer today.
12:25 pm
12:26 pm
in case you just tuned in, we've been waiting for the final decision from the ioc on which city will get the olympics, the summer olympics in 2016. chicago and tokyo have already been eliminated. we're expecting an announcement in about 30 minutes. it's now between madrid and rio. you can see that the parties continue at this hour. we were just hearing that the stock market in brazil has been moving higher in the last couple of hours after they came down to a 50-50 chance of getting the olympics. the bovespa is up at this hour. a 52% gain for the brazilian market there. we'll let you know in 30 minutes who gets the final bid.
12:27 pm
>> our markets right now, really kind of trying to hug the unchanged level. a little bit positive. given the jobs report how should you play the new quarter, concerns about jobs in the economy weighing on this market. let's talk to our task force about that. our wealth advisor joins us as well as our cnbc contributor. >> there was a cheer, actually, unfortunately. >> really? >> look there's a mixed reaction. half of us wanted to showcase our home town to the rest of the world. the rest of us is we're fiscally responsible. we don't like the fact there's a guarantee being backed with taxpayers especially with a quarter million of americans are out of work. let's create some jobs here first and not worry what's happening in six, seven years. >> you know, we've seen a lot of
12:28 pm
moves across the curve today in light of this jobs report. how are you playing it? >> think you're seeing what's happening in the beginning of the quarter, a classic allocation, money being taken off of the table out of equities, being put into the ten year. it's one of the reasons why the yield on the ten year as gone under 320. traders remember what it was like last year. and they do not want to see whatever they are sitting on, whatever gains they are sitting on evaporate over the course of these last few months. >> for months it seemed almost every major asset class was headed in the same direction. up. now it seems one of them finally took a tumble. does that continue for october? >> one of the things i see happening in october here is that a little bit of a pull back on the market to really reconsolidate the direction of where we're going. that there's still more upside potential in the overall market and the direction. >> even in october?
12:29 pm
>> even in october. we're looking at a little bit of consolidation. >> you believe this rally overall is going to hold, it sounds like. what about the fact that the ten year is yielding this morning 3.1. below 3.2. does that make you worried at all? >> right now, in the short term that's where we see a scenario or a situation unfolding of some pull back that we're experiencing right now currently. and we think that that's going to continue into october but also there's a potential for it to go the opposite direction, upside towards the end of this year. >> all right. thank you gentlemen. appreciate it very much. have a great weekend. >> thank you. >> we'll take a break. come back. breaking news could come in the next -- well, we're hearing 12:55 eastern time but it could come before then. the announcement from the international olympic committee to announce which of those two cities, madrid or rio will get the 2016 games.
12:30 pm
>> coming up at 12:45 p.m. eastern time it's the "fast money" halftime report. you're watching "power lunch" on cnbc and we're first in business worldwide. [ thunder rumbles ] what is the sign of a good decision? in the world of personal finance, it's massmutual. find strength and stability in a company that's owned by its policyholders. ask your advisor or visit
12:31 pm
12:32 pm
oh, boy. >> we're hearing now that we may get an announcement any moment now from copenhagen as to who gets the 2016 summer games. >> 121st session of international olympic committee. >> in particular welcome to the announcement ceremony for the games of the 31st olympic for the 2016 games. [ speaking foreign language ] >> a warm welcome to you. good to see you again here at copenhagen. >> four great cities, chicago, tokyo, rio de janeiro and madrid have all been vying to land the biggest prize in world sports.
12:33 pm
[ speaking foreign language ] >> yes, earlier today four cities -- four cities presented their detailed plans to the ioc members. but before we look back at the events of today, let's just remember what's at stake tonight. and go back to just over a year to the amazing spectacle of beijing. >> it was truly amazing. who could forget michael phelps. >> or the birds' nest. >> of course the warmth and welcome of the chinese people. don't take our word for it. watch this. >> they lead up to this, they are milking for all it's worth. >> can i ask you a question, darrin? can you hear me? >> yeah, i hair.
12:34 pm
what's going on. >> there's a big documentary on the bbc which raised these questions about vote selling, they had all kinds of video brokers promising they could get a city the olympics. what has been done since then to change the process, if anything? what do we know about the process now for deciding cities? >> nothing has been done. what's been done people go with who they want to go to. the criteria sue pick who you want. it's really not, you know, what the best city. there's a lot of relationships going on here. so, it's hard to say what's corruption. obviously, people have an eye an an ear, looking out for that corruption because of what happened in 2002 and the salt lake city bid scandal. it's not about under the table bid payments. madrid might still be in here is
12:35 pm
because of the former president of the ioc who was there from 1980 to 2001. his years of service, they might just want to honor him and it might not happen -- >> i'm not suggesting it's all about corruption, but we started the whole conversation almost as if it's based on a city's merit an it's not necessarily the case. >> no. that's definitely not the case. people were talking about presentations. why are we talking about presentations when there's pdf files that are 800 pages. >> also, michele, it's not all about business either because if it was, chicago would have won. broadcast rights would have been greatest for chicago compared to any of the other cities. >> exactly. >> the sponsorship deals would have been greater in chicago. clearly the ioc become global you got a lot of people in a lot of countries around the world they are not thinking about that. they are thinking about legacy and relationships. >> we'll talk about rio, because part of their speech was it's
12:36 pm
all about the fact that there's not been a south american olympics and there's been 30 from europe and eight from the united states. so let's see if their pitch works. >> an emerging market. if you're an advertiser and want to reach that clientele is a good market. >> this presentation will go on for a little while. we'll let it play it out. we'll head back to copenhagen in a minute. ross westgate is standing bias we continue to await the final announcement from the ioc on the 2016 sum are games. we're back with more "power lunch" after this.
12:37 pm
we know why we're here. to build a new generation of airplanes to connect the world. airplanes that fly cleaner and farther on less fuel. and make nonstop travel possible to more places. announcer: around the globe, the people of boeing are working together-- to bring us together. that's why we're here.
12:38 pm
12:39 pm
they are building up to the final announcement in copenhagen of the international olympic committee to tell us who will get the olympic games in 2016, the summer games there. ross westgate is in copenhagen right now. the tension builds here, ross. >> yeah. of course, the votes have already been decided. we don't know who has won. i think it's an important thing to remember here and the head of the ioc mentioned it at the conclusion of the vote. he said all the bid cities, technically could deliver a really good game. so, you know, chicago got out early because they couldn't deliver a good game. there's something more. the ioc delegates are either excellent athletes, some are
12:40 pm
members of royal families. they are looking for something extra. rio, romantic choice. something extra. there are concerns about the budget. they got to come up with $8 billion now for building it. but they are offering something we haven't seen before, madrid i go along with them. madrid don't need any vote brokers, they are the best connects, best lobby city we've seen. they ran four years ago and were the bridesmaid then. >> but the vote -- at least the bet is rio may get this since it never happened in south america. on the phone, the managing director with emerging global advisors, what do you think it would nene have the summer games in 2016? >> it's huge as we see what happened in history with other emerging markets. we saw the korean war them growing out of poverty, having the '88 olympics and then a big
12:41 pm
boost after that. that's the same with the japanese model and you saw it again with china. seven years ago or so we heard china get it and a big infrastructure push. gigantic infrastructure push. >> what about the budgetary concerns. look at what happened to athens it crushed. >> athens is a smaller economy that has their problems with euro. brazil is on the up move. time for emerging markets to have the center stage. they want power. they want to be on the security council. they want to grab all the resources. is this a time where the developed world is on their knees. they want to take this opportunity. >> if they get it, is there a play for the investor? is it going to be from your, commodities? what do you think >>it's definitely commodities because infrastructure takes time. you want to get the commodities now before infrastructure projects happen. this is a seven year roger. you want to have names. brazil will invest in their own and use the resources they have.
12:42 pm
almost like a nationalistic pride and let's organize the troops and get things together snoop when was the last time you were in rio. what's the state of the level of crime. can they deal with that? it wasn't that long ago that the gangs were able to shut down the entire city for three days at a time. >> just think about what happened with china? there's an unwritten policy in emerging markets that we have to grow and we'll do whatever we can. social unrest they will take care of it as they can. they now have power. they don't listen to what u.s. or anyone says about human rights. i'm not saying they are going to beat up but it is in their best interest. >> ten seconds, ross. any idea how much longer before we hear? >> well, we're waiting for the vote right now. the one thing i would say about the brazil bid is they have the head of the central bank very briefly and that's how important it was to get out the message about their finances.
12:43 pm
>> we'll take a break and come back with the halftime report and see you at the top of the hour.
12:44 pm
12:45 pm
welcome to the "fast money" halftime report. stocks are fighting back despite today's week economic data. where are your opportunities? today the second day of the fourth quarter, let's get to the
12:46 pm
"word on the street." we're awaiting the decision on where the olympics will be held. that ioc decision will come out imminently. we're seeing the brazil trade pretty strongly hire. what do you see in the charts here? this has been certainly an etf that has had a nice strong run this year. >> well, i think, melissa, if the past is any precedent, if that part of the world gets the olympics it's definitely a short term plus. i don't know if there's anything more in it than a short term trade, but i think, you know, you see the olympics go to that side of the world you want to look to buy and play that move higher. >> grasso, what do you make of it? >> the impact of the olympics on a city, not necessarily straight and clear.
12:47 pm
>> right. i would agree with the previous guest. you have to treat it as a short term blimp. going to be a pop. you don't want to be too cavalier and dump your money there and thinking it's a long term bet. >> rio and madrid in the running. let's get to the markets because we saw an amazing turn around here. brian, what were you observing today? we did see the markets seem to respond when the dollar gave up its gain. >> one thing, definitely the market has been a little wimpy over the last few days. volatility is coming back in the market. you want to play that in a near term short term trading scenario. we've seen the vix rise. there will mob volatility, october is that volatile time the year and we saw that today where the market was down. now it's rallied back.
12:48 pm
you'll see some movement over the next few weeks. >> j.j., what your noticing across the sectors especially when it comes to etf protection. we're seeing the vix trade higher. does that mean volatility across the board has gone higher? >> no. we talked the last two times about xlf. we're seeing volatility a little bit higher. smh which is a semiconductor index, these different sectors have been very stable when it comes to that. i think it's the ones that people believe will lead us if we do have a turn around like the financials that have seen the weakness. semiconductor conductors have been operate steady. >> we had a lot of conversations this morning prior to the opening, when news came out there would be some appetite when the s&p hit 1,000. we didn't get to that level. we saw some support in the market. >> you're looking at the 1020
12:49 pm
level. that's the bottom of the upward trend line. that's what traders are looking at. i think it's a short blimp. if i had a gone fishing sign for october i would use it right now. >> let's head to the chart of the day. let's look at the levels, 1020 that steve mentioned, the 50 day moving average. actually, i'm sorry. before we get to that let's go back to bill griffeth, the latest on the olympics. >> ioc delegation thanked the two losing concerns, that would be tokyo and chicago. they are just now introducing the head of the international olympic committee who will now make the announcement and i'm told that they have been holding to a strict time frame here and that the announcement is scheduled to happen in around 90 seconds, between 12:50 eastern time and 1:00. so, as they go through the typical pageantry that is always related with the olympic games,
12:50 pm
we're looking at the olympic committee itself made up, of course, of many former olympic athletes. these are the people who make the final decision on who gets the city, and they are about to make this final announcement here and we wait for whether it's madrid, the home of the former head of the ioc, for rio and you know, the president has been in copenhagen making his case as president obama did for chicago snoop he has been so vigorous in his support of brazil emerging on to the world stage. he definitely wants to be the first country in south america to host this. >> so let's see if he makes a decision here. >> i would like to thank the four candidate cities for their excellent bids and for their dedication to the olympic games and it's values. [ applause ]
12:51 pm
like in every competition, there can, however, only be one winner. >> ladiean gentlemen, telophe env containi the results wi be ought to therede by a youn athle who will very fst youtolymc gam in singapore tonighti hahe honor to the g e 31st awaed to e city of --io djaneiro.
12:52 pm
>> l's seehat the azilian market idoing athis pnt with rioir winning the bid. >> wo and therewao much ncern thatha econwas l.gog to fal apart, that he was a crazy cialist, that he was gogo coy and y two te office, he ha city to ht the ympi. exaord atraordary,09[ ary feat for brazil d president. >> the change thatre gng to have to be ma to the infrastructure of c ountry e it's going to be enomenal to wah. havebeen k]twe saw in china.r here, ke ours. 1.o is bucking that uptrend,
12:53 pm
exp azilian if a city knoww to party, it's rio. at's going to on for a w y what do you >> reporr:'m herehhil lebeau s i nota surise. the key pot toake and'v been talki abo howhe ioc doest re outmoney. thatas edenced bhicago but fothe tv playth is importbeuse you have to realthat rhourmo ahead o eastern ti. that allows the bid in comfortable for thenid to 2014 and 2016es. at youave to rlizen thrussia's an eighur differee that's gngo beery uncomfortable. the one hour might alw abc, isney,ndnbc,he two th arer biddin thee hr
12:54 pm
sothing. does say ts means >> i he hapeopleay to me, wellyore onlyinterested in broadcast righ because nb i 'se olympic netwk. thhe ca. the ason the olympics ndbrdcasto important is because t broadcast righ for north america,t's e bulk of th revenue for t international olympi committee. they do ce aboutroad elps them out little bit compared to wh i wldb have be for madri >> there's been lot gacy that's the key with ale presentations is g.rnin is certs gge will haveas being th present who has ovseen the appointmt of the first country t olpics, and, y know, it's going to be incdible for brilnd we'll have to e. i will say o thadvertising front e webecausere talking would be for brazil, it ill is not going to be as big a if it were in chicago bause the big ioc spos s
12:55 pm
here in the united stat despe the emerging rkets. phil, t's go bac to yo >>os wete stil there in capopenhagen. did it fl ke a ft accompli prise there as ll? >> i was with the -lianpresent ani have nev ma te tha was onfident tthey we infecous. was like therenfusg everybpassion. 're goinve i n tell tvsomething, they have band aw have t biggest astructure budget ovt of allhe other conten. $8 billion. $4lionggest with kyo. started with $3billio that's trebled upo $9 bin. this fure could well go up. that's why they had the hea of brian bid coming and sayin we've go publi deficit, bget
12:56 pm
deficits uer con trol, inflatiol. we went int this financial control with$200illion wth of tearily. then tnk that allowed the romanticon the ioc takeover d say now we can >>t definitely speaks te amatichanges brazilas gon througver t lt ten year backs o lot of polics that had kept the country so impoverishe for long. i ve lgelievedbrazil is the her country in the world that is most li the united es in terms of si, i termofhearty of the pele in the population. e rth vers sth. the natural resrcesailable, and when youookt the trajectory of thetime, u.s. fard brazil for so, so long, and yet now absolutely the culmination of the change in the economy down there. it's really, really terrific. >> andy is with us.
12:57 pm
>> andy bush in chicago. this is like their debutante ball as they emerge here, right? >> that's right. i feel like i didn't get asked to the prom. i mean, this is really sad for the city, but i will say this -- >> sad for chicago you mean. >> for chicago. >> obviously, for chicago, yes. that's where i'm at. we're a little saddened. i was down at the daly plaza. a big hush came over after we were voted out in the first round. this is the second major olympics to go to an emerging market. certainly legitimizes the bric countries, and that's what they wanted from the imf. they have a larger voting role, 5%. and it really underscores the strength of these economies, the fact that as you mentioned the central bank said we can devote our resources to this. so i think that's a major thing as far as brazil goes. i think it's great that they got it. on a secondary note, i will say this, as i wrote in my cnbc blog
12:58 pm
today, i think we're starting to see the peak as far as the obama appearances really make a major media impact for what he wants, and i think you'll see going forward less and less of these appearances because he's getting less and less draw tv ratings, or impact on the policies. >> andy, from an investment standpoint, we saw brazil and its markets soar. then we saw them sell-off dramatically when the united states had its troubles. would you play brazil based on its win now for the olympics? would you play it from an investment standpoint or not? >> right. i mean, the bric countries have been a great story. you know, from my world in the currency world, we don't like the u.s. dollar. obviously, we've been saying this from the beginning of the year, that the u.s. dollar was going to lose value. that's what we've seen. so that helps from an investment standpoint f we look at china as a paradigm for how this plays out as far as investments go, you know in the lead up to the
12:59 pm
olympics things get juiced. there's a lot of money flowing into the system. it draws additional money, and the way it works is that the stock market rallies up until about three months in front of the olympics. >> so for an individual -- >> -- so i think it's a good place to go. >> for an individual investor, would you do the currency, what would you do? >> i think from the currency standpoint we like that. it's one more reason why to like bric in emerging markets. >> okay. >> you don't think -- so much has been priced in already. >> no, i don't think it was priced in already, and i think again it's one of many factors and influences and decisions to invest in the emerging markets. the underscoring point which the central bank governor made is they came out of this crisis so much better than the united states did. they have money to devote to this. so that tells you that by definition their financial situation is much better than it is in the united states or the uk or europe. so, yeah. >> thank you, andy, with he have to take a quick break.
1:00 pm
>> we'll continue "power lunch" while the party continues in rio. >> does it ever stop? (announcer) this is nine generations of the world's most revered luxury sedan. this is a history of over 50,000 crash-tested cars... this is the world record for longevity and endurance. and one of the most technologically advanced automobiles on the planet. this is the 9th generation e-class. this is mercedes-benz.
1:01 pm
1:02 pm
1:03 pm
carnival has come early to rio. it's like a fat tuesday in october. it's unbelievable the celebration in brazil. the announcement just a few minutes ago from the international olympic committee out of copenhagen that rio de janeiro will lost the summer games of 2016. a huge victory. it will be the first summer games, any olympics, held in latin america. and right now the brazilian stock market, which had been rallying in anticipation -- >> it gave back a little bit. >> -- buy on the rumor, sell on the fact, it's up just 491 points at 60,951. we're looking at a few etfs that trade brazilian stocks. they're holding their gains but
1:04 pm
zwr just off the highs j we're go. g jo we're going to talk to dick ebersol and what this means to the broadcast community. they did a lot of infrastructure for the pan american games in 2007, but now they're saying they're going to have to basically start from scratch on the infrastructure play for brazil. >> and dennis, you were asking earlier when phil and darren were talking about just the broadcast revenues and rights for chicago versus latin america. it's fact. you're just not going to get as much advertising revenue out of that area of the world when you look at advertising rates in mexico, throughout latin america, the consumer down there is just on average not as wealthy as the average american consumer. they just don't pay as much for the average eyeball down there. >> it's always been chiefly a u.s. audience. what i like is in the same way china presented itself to the world even a decade after its capitalist revolution began through its olympics, so will brazil do that. i think it overall is going to
1:05 pm
be really good for that economy. brazil has as big an economy as the u.s. they're coming and they're capitalist and it's something to celebrate, and they're good at celebrating. >> if there's one thing they have down pat, it's the celebration part. it will be hard i think to match the spectacle that china put on for the summer olympics. that was -- >> don't forget brazil does it every year though, right in they do it every year with carnival. they do mount big, big events every single year, and i can't emphasize enough how exciting it is to have seen these changes in brazil when the president was running for office, their currency tanked. some bank stocks in america got hit hard because they had exposure to brazil. they were so worried that he was going to ruin the country, and
1:06 pm
instead he's done phenomenal things by embracing things like balanced budget, things they haven't done for so long. >> this could be an infrastructure play right there. tele brasil is rallying right now. >> that must be the brazilian etf, wisdom tree. >> up half a percent. let's leave brazil. we'll get back there sometime. we'll be talking to dick ebersol a little later. let's talk about today's jobs number, the state of the economy, the losing bid by chicago. i guess jared would want to address that as well. jared bernstein who is now chief economist for vice president biden. i joins us from outside the white house. we're always grateful for your time. thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> let's start with the olympic p bid. the president went, tried to use some star power, just didn't work out. >> that's true. every time you go out, you're not going to get a win, but this
1:07 pm
president is by far the greatest ambassador for our country's interest that i and i think most other americans can imagine. so you can't win if you don't try, and this president certainly made the effort. >> the jobs number, 263,000 jobs, certainly more than had been anticipated. does it signal a change in some of the progress that had been made in the recovery to this point in your view? >> i don't think it does in the following sense. we know that this is a tough recovery for the job market. there are some more positive indicators that we've discussed if you want to talk about industrial production or gdp, but for this president, this vice president, it really is about jobs, wages, and incomes of working families, and in that regard recoveries just move in fits and starts. some months are going surprise on the upside, some on the downside. the important thing to do, and especially if you're trying to consider the impact of our economic policies, so to smooth
1:08 pm
out some of the bips and bops by looking at quarterly averages. we now have averages for the first, second, and third quarter. the first quarter of this year, we were ham rajjhemorrhaged job rate of 700,000 per month. in the last quarter, about 250,000 jobs per month. so a much improved loss rate, not good enough by a long shot. >> what about federal reserve board chairman ben bernanke's comments yesterday where he's extremely worried about those who are no longer looking for jobs. they've been disconnected from the workforce for a long enough period of time where they're not even trying to find a new job. they're the discouraged worker, and that those numbers are rising rapidly and they are not necessarily accurately reflected in some of the economic statistics, and that's what's really worrying him. >> you've packed a lot into that question. it's a great question. i would probably take issue with the last point which is that, in fact, you can look in these
1:09 pm
statistics and find workers who have stopped looking for work, and they're significant. you're absolutely right. the under employment rate if you factor in some of the folks you mentioned is up to 17%. obviously a huge historic high. and that takes you right back to the recovery act. now, remember, the recovery act is 40% obligated or spent out. that means we've got a lot more fire power and that's how we planned it because we knew that this recovery was going to be an extremely tough one out of the greatest recession we've ever seen in this country since the 1930s. and so where that takes you is the kind of job creation that's going to pull those folks back into the labor force and give them the opportunities they need. we saved or created 1 million jobs so far. obviously, our job deficit is much bigger than that. but that's what i mean when i say we're on the right track heading in the right direction but not there yet.
1:10 pm
>> jared, the cash for clunkers program ending was much in evidence yesterday when we saw the sales numbers for the auto industry. did that program work as you intended? should there be more of that, more of that style of stimulus? do you think you actually got some of the energy back into the car market even beyond the stimulus? >> for the last part of your question, yes, because we've actually seen that some production schedules have been kicked up over the course of the rest of this year and even into next year because of cash for clunkers. and i would say it worked considerably better than we or anybody else expected. but, you know, what we're really talking about there is pulling sales forward. not by a month or two, that wouldn't help that much, but pulling sales forward by a year or more in some cases. and let's face it, we need that now. we needed it last month. and so i would argue, and i think others outside the administration would say that's
1:11 pm
worked well. >> jared, the stimulus package when government supposedly creates a job, isn't that just a short-term grant that runs out in a year to where that job could disappear unless our economy starts growing because of private jobs? >> well, to some extent you're correct in the sense that stimulus by definition is temporary, and there's an important fiscal responsibility message in there as well. we have to ramp up the spending in order to meet the greatest recession since the great depression and that's what we've done. but we also have to ramp it down in the spirit of fiscal rectitude. the important point is to make sure the stimulus, this is the longest keynesian stimulus, the point is to make sure you avoid sort of a keynesian air pocket like you're describing so as we pull out the private sector is coming in. not to get all crazy with metaphors. you have to be careful not to pull the jumper cables off too
1:12 pm
soon. >> stick with air pocket. >> before we let you go, on the heels of michelle's observations of cash for clunkers, you still have the tax credit for first-time home buyers, you still have the fed buying up treasuries to keep interest rates where they are. are we at a point now where you feel the economy could withstand taking those jumper cables off or do those need to be extended in your view? >> i think that's the kind of question that we have to look at exactly in the spirit that i was describing. and these are realtime analysis with data coming in as we speak, much like the cash for clunkers, first-time home buyers credit has clearly helped to stabilize the housing market, but whether or not that kind of program needs to be extended is precisely the kind of conversation we're having right now with the congress, whether it's unemployment insurance, first time credit. much of the action here has to be in making sure that stimulus is on as long as necessary but
1:13 pm
not longer. >> jared, big surprise for me in the report, 53,000 decline in government jobs despite the stim pack. please explain how the heck that happens. >> well, you're looking at very significant hardships in terms of state revenue. we know state budget deficits accumulate right now to well over $100 billion, and by the way, they have to balance their budget which means that they have to engage in what i would call counter cyclical either tax increases or service reduction. and so the recovery act, which is pouring tens of billions, injecting tens of billions into state budgets through medicaid matches and stuff like that, has offset a part of that deficit, but there's no conceivable stimulus package that could offset all of it. we've helped but just the nature of the depth of that deficit is such that we can do what we've done, but we're still looking at the kind of losses you
1:14 pm
mentioned. >> jared bernstein at the white house. always good to see you, my friend. >> thank you. where were you invest half a trillion dollars? that's how much david kelly overseas. jpmorgan funds chief market strategist will weigh in on everything from today's job report to where you should be putting your money. >> maybe brazil perhaps. also ahead, nbcu sports and olympic chairman dick ebersol will join us. plus david letterman's confession on late night television. what does it mean for his brand and media giant cbs?
1:15 pm
[ telephone rings ] [ ring ] [ "catch the wind" plays ] what is the sign of a good decision? in the world of personal finance, it's massmutual. find strength and stability in a company that's owned by its policyholders. ask your advisor or visit
1:16 pm
1:17 pm
all the girls from ipanema are out today in rio de janeiro celebrating the fact that the country has won the rights to hold the 2016 olympics. of the four cities in the final contention, rio had the lowest level of infrastructure required. they have to provide another 24% of the minimum required seating. they're going to have to do a lot of building down there. probably good for their economy. they have the money to do it. you can see what the bovespa has done over the last year, up 62% year-to-date. a huge oil find off the koetcoa. they have so much going for them. >> let's talk about not only the olympic bid and whether or not you should invest in brazil, but also about our economy and the jobs numbers and what it means
1:18 pm
for our markets. david kelly joins us once again, chief market strategist with jpmorgan funds, has nearly $500 billion in assets under management. welcome back, david. >> glad to be here. >> we've been talking about the emerging markets. give us your take. we saw what happened with china when we won the olympic bid. do you think brazil is a repeat or not? >> it's a very different economy. the brazilian stock market is dominated by big commodity producing firms. you have to draw a distinction in investing in the progress in brazil itself, i'm a believer in the brazilian economy and latin america will do catch-up in terms of development, there are a lot of people putting money into commodities. if the global economy doesn't grow fast enough you could see correction in commodities. be careful what you're investing
1:19 pm
in. >> what wabout our market and or economy in light of this jobs report. we saw a loss of jobs in an increasing number of categories, but you still think the recovery is on the mend. >> we're out of the intensive care unit. this is going to be a long convalescence. it's going to take us five years to get back to full employment, even when employment peaks. as far as we can see the economy did grow strongly in the third quarter, maybe 3%, 4% gdp growth in the third quarter. we should see a repeat of that in the fourth quarter. it will take six months of that to turn the unemployment rate. i think by early next week we may be beginning to see the unemployment rate starting to come down. >> i just got one of my guys on twitter who said i'll bet you, dennis, we see dow 9000 before we see dow 10,000. would you take that bet? >> no. the way to play this is -- as i said, it's a long convalescence. i don't know how the patient is going to feel tomorrow.
1:20 pm
i'm confident they will eventually get discharged. obviously, we'll see at some stage a correction, but we don't know how to time it. what we do know is this though. if the economy does gradually pull itself together, if we do see unemployment come down next year, if profits go up very strongly, which is what we expect, then the market will move higher. i'd hear marather make the long bet. >> david, thank you. good to see you. we'll take a quick break and then dick he be ebersol will join us in a few minutes. we'll talk about rio de janeiro and what it means in just a second. it's gmc truck month. shop sierra 1500 slt with the 403 horsepower 6.2 liter v8. it's the most powerful half ton v8 in its class. step up to the best. it's gmc truck month. get 0% apr for 60 months on 2009 gmc sierra
1:21 pm
or get $6,000 total cash back on select 09 sierra 1500 extended and crew cabs in stock. see your gmc dealer today. it doesn't cover everything. and what it doesn't cover can cost you some money. that's why you should consider... an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan... insured by united healthcare insurance company. it can help cover some of what medicare doesn't... so you could save up to thousands of dollars... in out-of-pocket expenses. call now for this free information kit...
1:22 pm
and medicare guide. if you're turning 65 or you're already on medicare, you should know about this card; it's the only one of its kind... that carries the aarp name -- see if it's right for you. you choose your doctor. you choose your hospital. there are no networks and no referrals needed. help protect yourself from some of what medicare doesn't cover. save up to thousands of dollars... on potential out-of-pocket expenses... with an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan... insured by united healthcare insurance company. call now for your free information kit... and medicare guide and find out... how you could start saving.
1:23 pm
♪ in case you're just joining us, just in the last hour here the international olympic committee announced that rio will be the host of the 2016 summer olympic games. first time the olympics will have been held in south america. it beat out chicago. president obama was there to make the case. the brazilian president was also there to make the case for brazil. they beat out madrid, spain, and tokyo. joining us right now, dick ebersol, nbc's long time chairman of nbc sports and olympics and he joins us today to work out what this all means, dick, and we've been trying to make sense of this from a political standpoint, a
1:24 pm
financial standpoint. in your view what does it for rio to get the 2016 games. >> it's not just rio, it's all of south america. the single biggest reason they won here today in their very passionate layout of their plan, each city was allowed about 45 minutes, this he went third after the united states and tokyo, and they just did the most unbelievable job at four different times during their 45 minutes of laying out just -- clearly laying out that the olympics had been in europe 30 times and new york america 12 times, ish shasia, 8 or 9, and australia i think twice. and they showed all of south america on that same map with no olympics ever. the ioc loves to do big things when they went to korea, when
1:25 pm
they went to mexico, and when they went to china. i think today was their kay for rio. >> did this work against chicago, having president obama, and oprah. >> this always was going to come down to rio and chicago. the big second story other than rio winning is chicago going out on the first round. i think that that stunned everybody in the room from what i'm told. we weren't allowed in the room after the presentations, so we didn't see it, but from friends who are ioc members, they said they all looked at each other in shock. >> so now what about rio? what do you expect for the rio games and what about the tv rights? >> well, the rio -- first of l all, both rio and chicago allow for 100% live olympics. rio is an hour ahead of new york, so when it's 8:00 at night in new york, it's 9:00 in new
1:26 pm
york. they're a late night city. i'm sure all the major events, track and field, swimming, gymnasti gymnastics, basketball, they'll all be at night which will be good for american television. however, not having a games on domestic soil probably between what we would pay or another american broadcaster would pay in tv rights and sponsorship dollars because most of the sponsorships the ioc sells don't go beyond 2012. they will have to sell russirus which is a tough sell because it's an eight -hour time difference. i think particularly among advertisers and sponsors, that's probably a 15% hit which would make it a $150 million to $200 million there alone. i think coupled with rio the ioc is looking at less television. they have never voted their pocketbook. i don't think they're sitting there stunned it's probably less money. >> darren rovell is stepping in
1:27 pm
from chicago as well. >> dick, obviously nbc has the rights through 2012, paid $2.1 billion for it. how would you characterize the state of nbc's interests at this point knowing rio? >> well, we've loved being part of the olympics. nbc has done every summer olympics back to 1988, and we've done all the winter games from salt lake city to torino and we're about to do vancouver. we obviously have the olympics in the blood. we'll go kick the tires and we'll let you know in a little while. i think the big story here today is obviously rio, but the secondary story is chicago had an exceptional bid. the president and first lady both did a very, very good job here today. i think what's going on here, because new york in a five-city finale in the first round only got 19 votes. here today chicago only got 18. i think the ioc, which is heavily euro centric, just under
1:28 pm
half the voters are european, and they are very, very disappointed in the relationship that they have with the united states olympic committee. they find it hard to believe that the united states olympic committee takes almost 13% of all the television money off the top, and they take 20% of the sponsorship money. they don't think in this era with the rest of the world paying rightful shares, which they weren't doing 20 or 30 years ago, they're the only country taking money off the top, and the vast majority of the members around the world only get $15,000 a year from all that money. and that is what's i think at the root of a lot of what happened here today and also what happened in singapore four years ago. we've got to get it worked out between our united states olympic committee and the other olympic committees of the world and the ioc or we won't see another games in the united states in a long, long time. >> dick ebersol -- >> and it's not anti-american
1:29 pm
simpl anti-americanism. >> thanks, dick. a year in the crisis. what about target date funds? how do they stack up? joining us now is craig hempke. and andrew mclily, the executive vice president and co-founder of first trust financial resources. welcome, gentlemen. andrew, i'll start with you, you like target date funds because you say they take some of the fear out of investing. very quickly, what are the three points you think people should look at if they're interested in target date maturity funds? >> i think they do take some of the fear out of investing in the 401(k). participants when deciding whether to invest in a 401(k) and which funds to invest in, the 401(k) target date retirement fund solution allowed them to have a broadly diversified portfolio without having to pick and choose from a vast array of funds. so it makes the decision a lot
1:30 pm
easier to participate. i have seen more participation from people who wouldn't generally participate. >> and it changes and adjusts as you age and provides with you diversification, but, you know, on the other hand, craig, you think that perhaps there are some issues within those target date funds that people need to be aware of. specifically the fixed income component. >> absolutely, sue. with a company like buy a you can imagine we don't mind conservative investing. we deal with income annuities which are as conservative as you get. the problem i see with a target date fund is an overreliance on traditional fixed income. we have been in a bull market in fixed income now for 28 years and i think asset allocations that rely on fixed income going forward as a safe haven are really in jeopardy once we begin moving into a bear market, a period of rising interest rates. >> which some people think we are headed for. >> exactly. >> because of the olympic coverage we're a little short on time. thank you very much. we didn't even get into the tax
1:31 pm
situation. there's a lot more to talk about and we'll talk about it when you come back. >> thank you, sue. all right. we're going to cover the markets and charlie gasparino and who might be in line to succeed jamie dimon. keep it here. the same tools the pros use, so you can be a disciplined trader. by selecting from eight advanced triggers, your order gets executed, even when you're busy. and with trailing stops to help you lock in profits and minimize risk, you can be confident in your strategy, no matter which way the market moves. find out why more and more active traders are turning to fidelity for a smarter way to trade online. trade like a pro. trade with fidelity.
1:32 pm
1:33 pm
1:34 pm
we're up ten points on the dow jones industrial average. what about next week? time for the trader triple play. joining us bobby heller, harris, and from the my next we have mark. bobby, we had a sell-off yesterday. today with the bad news on employment, markets faring pretty well. we're in the green. what about next week? >> i think we have had a five or six point correction from the extreme highs of a week or so ago. even people who are looking for a down movement can be sort of satisfied with that. i think we have a narrow band from 1020 to 1030 that the technical traders are looking at. they're looking forward to next week. i think we have some earnings come up. i think alcoa is due out wednesday. that will be a real test of whether the market is going, the economy is changing, and these companies are making money.
1:35 pm
>> what do you think about the ten-year yield, now below 3.2%? will we see more of that? >> it's a beautiful question. the unemployment number put an end to that rally, i think, on the ten-year because the ten-year was gaining traction because if this number had been, let's say, only below 100,000 lost, then it would have given the february cover to do some of the reverse repoes and raise rates and move the flat rate curve. this puts an end to that discussion for a while. so the dollar was rallying with that flattening curve and the equities were doing exactly what they should have, which is sell off. i think with what the news we saw today and the fact that the fed is going to be prohibited from doing that over the next short period of time has given more lift to the equity markets and i wouldn't be surprised to see this rally really gain some traction. >> mark, oil, next week, what's
1:36 pm
going to be the big driver? >> for the oil markets, right now, you know, you have a lot of attention with the iranians with the nuclear problem there. from a fundamental standpoint, you know, you have very high oil output -- >> what are they yelling about? >> i'm not sure. maybe a good trade. >> rio. >> very high oil output. you have the opec cartel cheating on their quotas. fundamentally i think we'll see some downside in the oil markets. >> all right. thanks, gentlemen. appreciate it very much. >> charlie gasparino standing by. jamie dimond has elevate ed jef staley leading to speculation that staley could take over if dimond should leave the company. we're joined by charlie gasparino, author of "the sellout." what do you think? a head fake? what are you hearing? >> no way this guy gets it. >> no way does he get it? >> thanks for joining us. >> have a great weekend.
1:37 pm
>> the guy who i think is going to get it is kind of a dark horse here. a guy named jay mandelbaum. i'm kind of a dimond watcher. they used to have china watchers as it became an important country way back when, jpmorgan is a very important bank and i know one of the things i know about jamie dimond is he keeps like a coterie of guys around him who he trusts. they followed him from various places beginning at citigroup and travelers and jay mandelbaum is one of those guys. we should have his bio up. it's impressive. i believe he worked at mckenzie for a while. had various jobs inside travelers and citigroup. >> we're showing people right there. former head of strategy and business development at bank one where jamie dimond used to be. former vice chairman and ceo of
1:38 pm
global private client group at salmon smith barney. >> and he's very close with jamie dimond. when i talk to people inside jpmorgan, they say this is the guy to watch if dimond should go. jamie dimond is 42 -- a huge if. the one thing that kind of makes me might go at some point and take a job in government is he's done so much. he's done a great job with this company. i guess it's a tossup between him and larry fink over who is the king of wall street. he's done an amazing job. a lot of people think this was a sort of move to set that up. my guess -- >> a government job for jamie dimond? >> why not? he's worth hundreds of millions of dollars. >> but this is a guy who said he was done doing business with the government. >> i love jamie, but he's also a limousine liberal. i know in his -- what was dunkin' donuts? >> that was a mistake. >> he likes the coffee at dunkin' donuts. i think there's some part of him
1:39 pm
that wants to give back, and so who knows. i'm not saying he's leaving, but i'm saying this mandelbaum guy is the guy to watch internally. something else that's really interesting. everybody knows i write about this in my book, dimond was fired by sandy wile over some tiff over not elevating wile's daughter to a higher post, and that's one of the reasons that led to his firing. a lot of the controversy about the daughter was that jamie wanted to elevate jay mandelbaum to a higher post. these guys go way back and if mr. staley gets the job, i will eat my hat. >> he said it on tv. >> said it at 1:38 p.m. on october 2nd. thank you, charlie. >> all right. which docs do analysts on average predict will have the biggest pop? allen joins us. >> this is part of our rocktober
1:40 pm
ex traf began va. we have 20 stocks set to pop. i'll give you the top three right now. metro pcs, sallie mae, and moody's. they're top of the list but we have 17 others on there. people are diving onto it on the website. you should, too. check it out. >> sallie mae, huh? >> that's interesting. >> because there's so much concern about whether or not they're going to be put out of business by government changes and regulations. >> that's a contrary play if i ever saw it. >> provocative. that's why you'd want to go to to get all the latest. an in-depth look at the state of the labor markets. our jobs across america panel straight ahead. the markets holding steady right now. the dow up just one point. we're back with more after this. remember the anticipation of hearing the ice cream truck? in poland, cargill borrowed the idea... for something quite different. small polish farms had difficulty getting...
1:41 pm
affordable feed for their smaller herds of animals. so cargill created a way to bring the feed... directly to them... on musical delivery trucks, selling a few bags per visit. ( dog barks, horse neighs ) keeping the small farmers competitive, and their animals happier. this is how cargill works with customers.
1:42 pm
1:43 pm
we've been talking all day about the jobs numbers for september. a loss, net loss, of 263,000 jobs across the country as the unemployment rate ticks up to 9.8%, the highest since 1983. what does the unemployment situation look like in various cities. joining us is the former mayor of new orleans who is in new york city today. also john gallagher, the reporter with "the detroit free press" and scott who works with "the miami herald." john, we noted recently the
1:44 pm
"time" magazine cover about the malaise in detroit. are you seeing in he signs at all of a bottom for your fair city? >> well, yeah, the unemployment rate peaked at 15.2% in the spring and it's mostly hovered around 15% so it looks like we're plateauing in the level. that's the worst level in the country, but we have been there for a number of years, at the worst level in the country, people are starting to think maybe we've bottomed out a little bit. cash for clunkers kind of juiced the automotive production a little bit. it might be slowly improving although at a low level. >> scott, what about down in your neck of the words. your state still losing jobs. the housing market still has its issues. the last time i believe we talked to you, you were expecting housing prices to continue to decline. give us an update. >> both unemployment and housing are going sideways at this
1:45 pm
point. about 10.8% unemployment here in miami as well as the state as a whole. the housing market seems to be bumping along looking for a bottom, and basically miami is actually better off than a lot of other parts of the state. we have areas like sarasota and ft. myers where the unemployment rate is 11%, 12% and up. >> couldn't we call it good news, the fact it's bumping alongs a s as opposed to still declining? >> right now people are saying flat is the new up. but a lot of people also feel its tenuous. we don't know if some other shock is going to hit the market and things are going to start falling down again. >> mark, are you hoping the stimulus package is enough to create jobs or should we be pulling more levers to start making more jobs happen with new growth? >> i believe that since maybe a fourth to a third of the
1:46 pm
stimulus money has been spent that we haven't seen the full effect of it, but you're right. i think one thing we might try is really try to induce the flow of capital into small businesses in urban communities to create small pockets of jobs here and there. what's clear is more must be done. what's clear is we need interest rates to remain low. congress should extend unemployment benefits, but let's try a concerted effort in the small business sector. i think that might be something that we haven't tried that might be able to juice the economy in these areas of high unemployment which are american cities. >> john, your governor has been very active trying to find partnerships out the automotive industry. are you seeing any traction with that at all? >> some. we're seeing actually a lot of movies made here because we have the highest movie incentives. it's pretty common to see
1:47 pm
hollywood productions in the streets of detroit and around town. we're also getting some headway with the wind turbines and new advanced batteries for cars and all that sort of stuff. >> what about you, scott? where are the jobs coming from? we typically think of your area as tourism and housing. >> that's right. >> anything else? >> miami is lucky, it's kind of a diversified economy. we have great international travel from miami international airport, even though a lot of peep aren't crazy about the airport itself. we have headquarters for latin m.a.s.h. and the western hemisphere for a lot of international companies here. that said, not very many companies are hiring just now. the only industries showing any growth are in health care and even they have been kind of flat in these last few months. >> yeah. health care has been one of the few bright spots in the national number as well. john, scott, thanks for joining us. mark, always good to see you. thanks. >> thanks, guys. capitalism, lighten up the developing word. >> we have a gust who says
1:48 pm
companies should invest less in roads and bridges and more in defense lawyers for the local population. >> industrial average in positive territory, up by three points. but some people thought in the wake of the unemployment number this morning we might see some weakness. 9512. >> more evidence that flat is the new up. >> yes. starting monday on "squawk on the street." five days and five stars. each morning we're talking to the best of the best. the fund managers that are making big money while the rest of the pack flounders. tech, fretreasuries, health car small cap, large cap, and beyond. if you can nak it, we'me it, we talking about how it can make you money. @@
1:49 pm
1:50 pm
1:51 pm
president obama making his first comments after the decision that rio de janeiro will host the 2016 olympics. he said he's disappointed by the
1:52 pm
decision but proud of chicago's bid. chicago has spent the week celebrating the 60th anniversary of communism. their capitalist revolution is helping to spark another revolution across the country. our next guest has trained hundreds of defense lawyers and freed dozens of people in prison from china and rwanda and other places. you're usually based in geneva. you were here getting an award from harvard university. congratulations for that. >> thank you. >> one interesting argument you say is capitalism is helping fuel a second revolution for defendant rights. why is that and what should companies do? >> what's fantastic is what we realize is that while search focused on the fact they're very excited about capitalism and everyone moving forward, there's something else and that's the
1:53 pm
legal rights revolution. >> does capitalism make that easier? >> absolutely because they work hand in hand. you can't actually be in an environment without a stable gof government, without a stable rule of law place, so they are open to civil society coming in and helping them. >> it's amazing the oppressive governments have let you get into their country and talk to lawyers. you organize that the world bank instead of investing in bridges and roads they should put money where? defense la urwyer? >> legal aid. 93 countries have laws on the books that say you have a right to a lawyer and a right not to be tortured. they have political will. one of the issue is torture continues because it's a the cheapest form of investigation.
1:54 pm
>> it's more about investigating a crime. >> well, yeah. most of the people who are tortured today are not political prisoners. 95% -- >> the vast majority it's economic -- >> they're the 12-year-old boy who stole a bicycle or the woman i met in bir rwho was in jail f years for stealing diapers. this is the map thiin thing, th world community -- >> all right. >> all right? >> we have to wrap. thank you for being here. she wants to end torture around the world. >> www. -- >> she's got -- >> make a donation. thank you. >> thanks, karen. >> david letterman's confession on late night television. what does it mean for his brand and media giant cbs? a full dose of "empty calories," next. national car rental knows i'm picky.
1:55 pm
so, at national, i go right past the counter... and you get to choose any car in the aisle. choose any car? you cannot be serious! okay. seriously, you choose. go national. go like a pro. bull market or bear, traders are always hungry for ideas. they find them at td ameritrade. trading's all about strategy. and strategy... is all about information. so i start my trading day... with td ameritrade's morning perspective. that's interesting... or, look at this... i can mine their weekly webcast for ideas. this is what i need. of course, ideas are just the start. so now i can drill down. heat mapping... heat mapping shows me where the money's moving. 2,500 stocks... one quick glance. cold... cold. hot! right there. look at this-- pattern matcher... pattern matcher spots technical patterns, automatically. wow, look at that.
1:56 pm
look at that head and shoulders right there. it's like pattern radar. pattern x-ray vision. plus, this amazing gadget... called the telephone. i can call td ameritrade anytime and talk trades, strategies. anything. that's where the action is. td ameritrade. built by traders for traders. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days plus get $100 cash, when you open an account.
1:57 pm
new developments regarding the david letterman blackmail plot. robert joel has been indicted on larceny.
1:58 pm
the prosecutor says the charges are punishable by five to ten years upon conviction. maybe you saw this last night. letterman was getting some awkward laughs after admitting to having affairs with female staffers. >> he's going to take all of the terrible stuff that he knows about my life and he seems to in this packet, there seems to be quite a lot of terrible stuff he knows about me. and he's going to put it into a movie unless i give him some money. i just want to reiterate how terrifying this moment is because there's something very insidious about is he standing down there? is he hiding under the car? >> and did he point out he was trying to protect his family -- >> and his staff. >> his staff. >> and his job. i mean, he pointed out he hoped to keep his job. >> i think this is an amazing pr coup for him to be the first to announce it in front of his own audience. there's advice for ceos who ever stumble into personal scandal. you have to get out in front of this.
1:59 pm
it's the simplest defense. i write about it on today. >> do you think it damages his career or the brand? >> do you know what? i think he was so home spun and sincere in the way he took the hit on it. i just think he's going to survive this easily. i can't see this damaging the cbs brand. he got applause at the end of this speech, right? his audience actually supported him. >> there was some confusion as to whether he was joking about it. >> right. i think people didn't quite understand what was happening at first. >> right. >> i think it will remain to be seen. he is on an upswing right now ratingswise. he just beat conan o'brien last week for the first time in 15 years he was beating "the tonight show" on a week by week basis. if he sees a rating dip
2:00 pm


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on